A landmark NCAA settlement could finally pay athletes what they’re worth — but at what cost?

This fall, college sports may face its most dramatic upheaval in history. A federal judge is expected to finalize a groundbreaking legal settlement that would, for the first time, allow U.S. colleges and universities to directly pay their athletes. Under this deal, schools in the NCAA’s “Power Five” conferences could each allocate up to $20.5 million annually — eventually increasing to $30 million — in salaries for student-athletes.

The proposal, years in the making, is hailed by many as a long-overdue shift in an industry that has long profited from unpaid labor. At the same time, it’s igniting backlash from unexpected corners. Critics argue the agreement will gut non-revenue sports, hurt female athletes, and worsen inequality within college athletics. Lawsuits and appeals are almost certain to follow, delaying relief for some and eliminating opportunities for others.

As the dust settles, one thing is certain: this is more than a new chapter in college sports. It’s a total rewrite.

The Road to Reform

For decades, the NCAA clung to the ideal of “amateurism” — the notion that college athletes should play for the love of the game, not for a paycheck. This principle, long enshrined in NCAA rules, conveniently served as a legal shield while the organization and its member schools raked in billions from TV rights, sponsorships, ticket sales, and merchandise.

But the model began to crumble in the 2010s. The push for reform gained steam through lawsuits and growing public awareness. The tipping point came in 2021, when the Supreme Court unanimously ruled against the NCAA in NCAA v. Alston, calling its restrictions on education-related benefits “flatly illegal” under antitrust laws. That same year, the NCAA lifted its ban on name, image, and likeness (NIL) compensation, allowing athletes to sign endorsement deals for the first time.

While that change opened the door to outside income, schools still couldn’t directly pay athletes. The new settlement upends that last line of defense — and with it, the NCAA’s long-standing justification for treating athletes differently from other students who generate revenue for their schools, like research assistants or musicians on tour.

What the Settlement Really Means

The proposed deal, spearheaded by attorneys representing a class of current and former Division I athletes, could become binding as soon as this week. If approved, it would reshape the college sports financial model on several fronts:

• Salary Caps: Each Power Five school could allocate up to $20.5 million per year to directly pay athletes. That figure would rise over time to roughly $30 million per school over the next decade. These payouts would be subject to NCAA oversight but would finally recognize athletes as laborers in a billion-dollar industry.
• Backpay Pool: The NCAA and its schools would also be on the hook for $2.75 billion in backpay to athletes who competed before NIL became legal in 2021. Football and men’s basketball players — the biggest revenue drivers — would receive the largest cuts.
• Clearinghouse Oversight: In an effort to regulate NIL deals and prevent schools from overcompensating athletes, a third-party system operated by Deloitte would track every transaction over $600. That’s a clear attempt to reduce under-the-table incentives and recruiting wars.
• Roster Cuts: The most controversial piece? To balance the books, schools may cut roster sizes in non-revenue sports like gymnastics, wrestling, swimming, and track. Some athletes have already been warned that their positions are in jeopardy.

It’s the first time a college sports settlement has tried to combine progress for some athletes with cost controls that keep schools from bleeding money. Whether it works — or implodes — is another story.

Winners and Losers

As with any massive shift, there are clear winners — and painful losers.

Winners:

Star football and basketball players at major programs will likely see the biggest gains. Their games generate the revenue that funds entire athletic departments. These athletes, who already benefit from NIL, will now receive direct compensation from schools, giving them a financial boost akin to pro-level pay.

Elite programs will also benefit. The new structure effectively professionalizes high-revenue college sports, and schools with deep pockets and strong brands will be better positioned to navigate the transition.

Losers:

On the other hand, thousands of athletes in non-revenue sports face uncertainty — or worse. Roster caps, introduced to keep costs down and maintain Title IX balance, could gut teams that don’t contribute directly to the bottom line. Athletes in sports like fencing, rowing, tennis, and gymnastics may see their scholarships vanish or their programs shuttered entirely.

Female athletes could also be disproportionately impacted. Though Title IX legally requires equal opportunities, financial realities often work against it. If football continues to dominate school budgets, where will that leave women’s soccer or softball?

Additionally, walk-ons — those who play without scholarships — could be sidelined as programs prioritize those who can be paid under the new cap.

The money is finally flowing. But not everyone will get a seat at the table.

The Backlash

The settlement may be a step forward for athletes’ rights, but it has sparked fierce backlash — not from athletic departments, but from athletes themselves.

During a recent court hearing, LSU gymnast and social media star Olivia Dunne criticized the proposed backpay deal as undervaluing athletes like her, whose NIL worth far exceeds any flat payout. Dunne, one of the highest-paid female college athletes thanks to her online presence, called the plan “cruel” and questioned why athletes should accept scraps after years of being exploited.

Other athletes echoed her concerns. They argue that damage calculations are opaque and do little to account for individual branding success. The proposal, in their view, still prioritizes the system over the people.

Legal experts are also watching closely. There are credible concerns about whether the deal violates antitrust laws — by capping pay — or fails to meet Title IX requirements by not providing equitable compensation across genders.

Expect appeals. They could delay implementation and, in the worst case, tank the entire agreement.

What Comes Next

If the judge approves the deal, schools could begin restructuring their athletic departments as early as this fall. That means contracts, payouts, cuts — and, inevitably, lawsuits.

The financial model of college sports will shift from indirect perks to direct pay. Recruiting could resemble free agency even more than it already does, with players weighing not just scholarships but salaries. Coaching salaries may also take a hit, as athletic departments rebalance budgets.

For schools outside the Power Five, the choice to opt in will be a tough one. Join the new era and stretch already thin budgets? Or stick to the old model and risk irrelevance?

It’s also likely this move sets the stage for a semi-pro structure — something many critics of the NCAA have long predicted. If players are paid by the school, overseen by a third-party agency, and restricted by salary rules, they’re not really amateurs anymore. They’re employees in everything but name.

Final Word

This settlement isn’t just about money. It’s about control, power, and identity in college sports.

For too long, the NCAA used amateurism as a shield — a way to justify massive profits while restricting the athletes who made those profits possible. This deal, flawed as it may be, is a major blow to that system.

Still, the costs are real. Promising athletes will lose scholarships. Female athletes may get sidelined. Smaller programs could disappear entirely. We’re not just talking about economics — we’re reshaping opportunities and lives.

But progress is rarely clean. The NCAA’s house was built on an outdated foundation. This settlement may not be perfect, but it’s a wrecking ball to that old structure. What gets built next — that’s up to schools, courts, and athletes themselves.

College sports is no longer just a game. It’s a business. And now, finally, the players are starting to get paid like it.

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